The cornerstones of our long-term forecasts

StatPlan provides reports and databases on the infrastructure of power, and the industries and markets supporting generation, and the transmission and distribution networks. The StatPlan databases encompass energy metrics, the installed bases of infrastructure and energy equipment, market and competitive trends and relevant demographics. Most of these databases contain data from 1900 for every country, except for more recent technologies, such as renewables and environmental controls. Such delving into the past is essential because much of the equipment and plant comprising the power supply sector is long-lived by today’s short term consumer oriented standards, indeed there are serviceable items of equipment over one hundred years old in our networks, still working perfectly well. In order to plot the cycles of demand for a product with a 40 year design life accurately, it is necessary to have historical data not only for the past 40 years but for at least 80 and preferably 120 years. StatPlan has invested hundreds of hours in creating such databases, which are one of the cornerstones of our forecasting methodology.

Basic energy metrics include electrification and gasification. Infrastructural data includes installed generating capacity by fuel, transformer capacity for generator and network transformers in transmission and distribution, circuit kilometres of transmission and distribution lines, overhead lines and underground cable, AQCS, desalination capacity, subsea projects, and others. Equipment fleets, production and trade include turbines, transformers, cables, insulators, switchgear, fuse gear, transmission towers, distribution poles. With these statistics we can compare production and consumption and we can model markets in short term sales and in long term cycles over decades.

Disparate sources of data have made their contribution, with over 300 demographic reports in our files and more than 1,000 reports and sources on aspects of energy. These include censuses, statistical papers, demographic and fertility studies, industrial market studies and estimates, academic and sociological papers, PhD theses, energy efficiency studies, energy production and consumption, commercial reports and others and other sources.

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