Transformer Report Ed 10 2022 – Vol 1 & 2

From £4,250.00

New Methodology – 3 Sizing & Forecasting models

With the start of the Covid pandemic, 2020 experienced the lowest sales of power and distribution trans-formers but 2021 saw an surge of 24% to $49.3 billion. The forecasting model indicates that MVA capacity sales increased 6% in volume and 17% in price. The volume increase was due to recovery from Covid, while the larger price increase was due to increased costs of materials – CRGO, copper, transformer oil and hard steel as well as soaring energy costs – together with higher demand for materials in China, supply chain and transport blockages. The model plots the trend up to 2027 for each country, in both capacity (MVA) and value ($). Continued…

Description

These results are verified by reports from the market of transformer manufactures announcing price increase of 8%-10% in May 2021, w.e.f. June 2021, with a warning that further increases may follow. Lead times have doubled and more. The US PPI records a production cost increase in 2021 of 36% for power and distribution transformers and 20% y.o.y. July 2022.

There have been wide variations country to country. For example, Chinese sales grew 28% in value in 2021, compared with 4% in India, while India suffered falls in domestic production of transformers of 19.2% in 2019 and of 22.7% in 2020 and the market remained static due to imports.

Vol 1 of the Transformer Report provides sales forecasts, market analysis of sales, production, imports, ex-ports, production shares, the installed base of transformers, global trade and factors determining prices.
Market analysis – production, import, exports, sales
Market analysis of value ($), by country – production, import, exports, sales
Market analysis of capacity MVA, by country – production, import, exports, sales
Market analysis of value ($), by country, by transformer technology and voltage – production, imports, exports, sales
Market analysis of capacity (MVA), by country, by transformer technology, voltage and capacity – production, import, exports, sales
Sales analysis
Sales in value ($) – by country, 2020, forecast 2021 to 2027
Sales in capacity (MVA) – by country, 2020, forecast 2021 to 2027
Sales in capacity (MVA) – by country and transformer segment, voltage and capacity, 2020, forecast 2021 to 2027
Production shares
Production % shares of manufactures’ sales of transformers ≥ $5 million
For Europe (79 cos), USA (47 cos), Canada (13 cos) , Mexico (21 cos) , Brazil 24 cos), India (20 cos)

Definitions
Transformer segment refers to function – Central GSU ≥36 kV, ≥10 MVA, Distributed GSU, <36 kV, <10 MVA, Net-work PT ≥36 kV, ≥10 MVA, Network DT <36 kV, <10 MVA, Dry-type MV & LV
Transformer technology refers to the type of transformer – Power oil-filled transformer ≥36 kV, ≥10 MVA, Distribu-tion oil-filled transformer <36 kV, <10 MVA, Dry-type >1kV, Dry-type <1kV

Installed base of transformers
Installed transformer capacity (MVA) – by country, by segment, voltage and capacity
Ratios of transformer capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW) – by country, by segment, voltage and capacity
Numbers of distribution transformers and capacity (kVA) – by country, kVA/unit

Development of distributed and central generation
World central and distributed GSU transformer capacity (MVA) plotted from 1990 to 2030
(Analysis by country is available, contact StatPlan)

A chapter outlines the recent trends in development of distributed generation and its impact on central generation, with surveys of renewables growth and the different technologies.

Trade of power and distribution transformers, 2020
Imports of oil-filled transformers by capacity <650 kVA, 650<10,000 kVA, ≥10 MVA
Exports of oil-filled transformers by capacity <650 kVA, 650<10,000 kVA, ≥10 MVA
Imports of dry-type transformers by capacity <1-16 kVA, 16<500 kVA, ≥500 kVA
Exports of dry-type transformers by capacity <1-16 kVA, 16<500 kVA, ≥500 kVA

Top 35 importers and exporters, analysed by capacity, 2020
Top 35 importers of oil-filled transformers total, by capacity <650 kVA, 650<10,000 kVA, ≥10 MVA
Top 35 exporters of oil-filled transformers total, by capacity <650 kVA, 650<10,000 kVA, ≥10 MVA
Top 35 importers of dry-type transformers total, by capacity <1-16 kVA, 16<500 kVA, ≥500 kVA
Top 35 exporters of dry-type transformers total, by capacity <1-16 kVA, 16<500 kVA, ≥500 kVA

Top 35 importers and exporters, analysed ty voltage, 2020
Top 35 importers of transformers total, by PT oil-filled HV, DT oil-filled MV, dry-type MV, dry-type LV
Top 35 exporters of transformers total, by PT oil-filled HV, DT oil-filled MV, dry-type MV, dry-type LV
Note: Trade data is not yet available for 2021 for all countries, including some which are in the Top 35.

Prices and factors determining transformer prices
The composition of production costs for transformers is shown, with their % contribution. The future price trends for the important materials and components in different regions is charted, together with PPI (Producer Price Indices) for transformers or electrical equipment. These are essential inputs to the new forecasting model.

Production capacity and utilisation
Production capacity for manufactures in each important market, together with utilisation factors. In the last decade the transformer market has been affected by excess production capacity, sometimes and in some countries a high level but this is being reduced and utilisation levels are increasing.

Long term demand trend
StatPlan maintains a historical database of generating and transformer capacity for every country, recorded from 1900 to 2022 and forecast to 2050. Demand consists of current sales for new capacity plus replacements of old plant. The chart plots the new installations, replacements and the total. Replacements have been calculated as the amount installed at the date of installation, not as a % of the current installed capacity, which over-estimates the amount of replacement in a growing market. The model distinguishes very clearly between growing markets and mature markets which have little new growth but high replacement volume.

Competitive analysis
Production share data is provided as outlined above. The report also contains detailed profiles of the major global and regional manufacturers, mostly based in Europe, North and South America and Asia Pacific. These include some companies which are seeking to expand from a strong national base but in a limited market to regional sales and further. As well as these profiles, the report lists several hundred companies with their main products.

Vol 2
Vol 2 contains a wide range of descriptive material about the transformer markets, products and the industry. These are the accumulation of years of researching these markets and industries. This volume may be of less interest to professionals in the transformer industry but offer valuable insights to experts from other fields who are less familiar with transformers.

A full list of contents is contained in the Table of Contents. Topics include outlines of the many transformer types, background information about low voltage transformers, descriptions of the different distribution network systems of Europe and North America and their impact on global practice, the use and impact of solar inverters on the distribution transformer market, with a survey of hosting capacity practices and developments, redundancy at N-1 and other levels, smart transformers, a survey of MEPS and high efficiency transformers, the supply chain and logistics.

Vol 1 – 229 pages, 164 tables, 30 figures
Vol 2 – 110 pages, 13 tables, 50 figures

Click here to read the brochure (PDF)

Click here to read chapter summaries, table of contents and sample pages