The report contains comprehensive analysis of the transformer markets; globally, for all regions and for 78 countries, sales and the installed base by type of transformer and ownership for 2018.
- Market analysis of major countries of North America, Europe, CIS, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, LAC.
- The report predicts market trends in volume and value from 2018 to 2025.
- The long term demand cycle is plotted – depends on new build and historical replacement over decades.
- Price trends and factors affecting price are analysed; input costs for raw materials, labour, energy, production capacity and capacity utilisation.
- Transformer production capacity is assessed in MVA by country and major manufacturer.
- Production capacity in tonnes and manufacturers of electrical steel are analysed.
- Competitive analysis and market shares of the top 21 transformer manufacturers, shares or listings for countries. Does disruption loom as ABB, the largest transformer manufacturer, exits the grid business?
- Customer list – utility landscape with transmission and distribution companies listed for 204 countries.
- The Grid Edge is already impacting on the transformer mix in distribution networks and this will accelerate. The distribution networks are not ready yet. The changing landscape of electricity systems, with the growth of DER and renewables, energy efficiency, electrification and digitalisation are discussed.
- Smart transformers, characteristics and technical requirements, inputs to the smart grid, current market up-take.
- MEPS – Minimum Energy Performance Standards for transformers are listed for countries which have enacted them and the market for high efficiency transformers analysed.
- Load factors and redundancy are essential features of any network. Ignoring this distorts estimates of transformer populations by large factors. Load factors range from 50% to > 100% in networks, reflecting levels of redundancy. This is discussed in detail.
1. TRANSFORMER SALES IN MVA AND EX-FACTORY COST $
Sales in base year 2018, forecast in MVA and in nominal $, annually from 2018 to 2025
- Analysis– Global, North America, Europe, CIS, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, LAC
- By 78 countries, in MVA and $ value
- Country sales analysis in MVA by Power Transformer/Distribution Transformer
2. TRANSFORMER SALES COMPARED AT EX-FACTORY COST & INSTALLED COST $
Sales in base year 2018 to 2025, by region.
3. MARKET SHARES
Competitive analysis and market shares of the top 21 transformer manufacturers, and shares or listings for country markets.
4. CUSTOMER LIST
Utility landscape with transmission and distribution companies listed for 204 countries and territories.
5. GENERATOR AND TRANSFORMER INSTALLED BASE ANALYSIS
Base year 2018, transformer type.
- By region and 78 countries
- Type – GSU, Power Network Transformer, Distribution Network Transformer, Industrial Transformer
- Power generation capacity MW
- Transformer capacity MVA, number of transformers, kVA per transformer
- Analysed by power transformers by ownership – Generator, Utility, Industry
- Analysed by distribution transformers by ownership – Generator, Utility, Industry
6. PPI (PRODUCER PRICE INDEX) TREND, FACTORS IMPACTING PRICE
PPI trends and the following factors impacting prices are analysed. Price trends and factors affecting price are analysed; input costs for raw materials, labour, energy and production capacity, capacity utilisation.
7. THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS; GSU, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS
Transformers are needed at any stage where the voltage changes up or down. The stages and parameters are mapped as power is stepped up from generating plant to the high voltage transmission grid, down to medium voltage distribution grid and down to low voltage end user.
8. TRANSFORMER : GENERATOR CAPACITY RATIOS – MVA : MW
- By region and 124 countries
- By type – GSU, Power Network Transformer, Distribution Network Transformer
9. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND MANUFACTURERS
Production capacity is assessed, for transformer manufacturers and for electrical steel, for different regions and countries and surplus capacity identified, with its effect on prices. Manufacturers of both are listed with global shares of production capacity.
10. N-1, N-2, 2N, 2N+1 SECURITY AND REDUNDANCY
Load factors and redundancy are essential features of any network. Load factors range from 50% to > 100% within networks, reflecting levels of redundancy. Ignoring these fundamentals distorts estimates of transformer populations by large factors. Surprisingly, some organisations of high repute have ignored redundancy and publish estimates of the transformer populations as much as 50% too low. In the various parts of a network different load factors are use to achieve a cost-effective security standard usually N-1 or N-2. What are N-1 or N-2 security standards, where are they applied and how do they affect the transformer population?
11. LONG TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
The long term demand cycle depends on new build and replacement. Power transformers commonly have 40 year lives or more and with modern life extension can last even longer so the replacement cycle is a long term issue. To determine the demand cycle it is necessary to chart the growth of the transformer fleet over many decades. StatPlan has charted this since 1900 and the cycle is plotted to determine the demand cycle over 150 years, from 1900 to 2050. The long term demand cycle is not the same as the short term sales forecast.
12. THE POINT OF CONNECTION, CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
The Grid Edge is impacting on electricity systems; a changing generating mixture and increases in distributed power and renewables, the growth of DER and renewables, energy efficiency, electrification and digitalisation are in flux, and the distribution networks are not yet ready for the Grid Edge.
13. SMART TRANSFORMERS
The aging power grid, increasing energy demands, distributed generation and the environment all point toward the need for a smart grid. Transformers serve as a hub for collection and distribution of energy and are key components of a smart grid.
14. MEPS AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Losses in transmission and distribution networks constitute the single biggest loss in any electricity system and 70% of these losses occur in the distribution network. Government regulations and pro-grammes to reduce losses with energy efficient distribution transformers are outlined for different regions, with analysis of the amorphous distribution transformer industry and market uptake.
Power transformers can be the size of a house and weigh 400-500 tons. They often have to be transported large distances over difficult terrain with poor roads, underpasses and overpasses and limited load weight limits. For LPTs, the parameters of the move must be incorporated at the design stage before manufacture. Logistics problems and solutions are discussed together with their implications for transformers.
Electrification rates around the world vary considerably and these are charted, with their impact on electrical markets.